The mood within the government on the day of Tuesday's Budget was considerably brighter than it's been in recent months. No doubt buoyed by the tightening polls and the slight improvement to the PM's personal ratings over recent weeks.

Ministers were out drinking on Monday night at traditional watering holes like the bar attached to the Realm Hotel near Parliament House. Not drowning their sorrows but rather enjoying the changing political climate ahead of the election.

To be sure, it is the Opposition Leader Peter Dutton who is now somewhat under the pump. Expectations had risen unrealistically high in recent months, with many who should know better starting to predict that a change of government might be in the offing after just one term in power.

Were that to happen, it would be the first time a one term government failed to secure re-election since 1931. It is not entirely off the cards, of course, and anything can happen once the campaign starts. But a Coalition victory seems highly unlikely.

The bookies have shortened Labor's odds, now ahead of the Opposition after being neck and neck on Monday. That's a simple case of money flooding Labor's way after its odds blew out to $2.50 according to at least one betting site.

Crazy odds for a one term incumbent in what is essentially a two horse race.

The simple fact is Dutton has exceeded expectations as Opposition Leader, almost irrespective of how the Coalition performs at the election. While this Budget might help Labor preserve a seats lead in the parliament after the next election, it's unlikely to help save the Labor majority.

This government's best case scenario at the next election is to win without a majority. Reduced to a minority government dependent on at least the Greens for survival, perhaps requiring the support of other crossbenchers too.





Budget 2025 will most likely come to be seen as the turning point if Labor does go on to win the election. Pictured: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese congratulates Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday night after handing down their fourth Budget






The standard practice is for PMs to get out of the way on budget night and give their Treasurer (pictured kissing wife Laura on Budget night) the limelight, uninterrupted












Few predicted that sort of disastrous outcome when Albo won in 2022 and Dutton was elected Liberal leader. He was seen as too toxic to win seats in Victoria and unlikely to retain the lion's share of LNP seats held in Queensland, despite hailing from up north.

So much has changed since then, even if the expected result is slowly drifting Labor's way the closer we get to the campaign. It was always going to be thus.

Budget 2025 will most likely come to be seen as the turning point if Labor does go on to win the election. At the very least you can see Treasurer Jim Chalmers pushing that narrative after the campaign is over, perhaps as a precursor to a tilt at the leadership if Albo remains a drag on his party after polling day.

We know Albo isn't the best of campaigners. His most successful week of campaigning at the 2022 election was the week he was in lockdown at home with Covid. His senior shadow ministers took up the cudgels of the campaign and it was Labor's best week.

I don't anticipate Albo getting Covid again during this year's election campaign.

The PM even made an appearance in the Budget lock up yesterday, which prime ministers rarely do. He clearly doesn't want Chalmers to get all the credit if Labor secures a second term in power.

Which is also why Albo was also doing media interviews on the day of the Budget, also unusual. Again the standard practice is for PMs to get out of the way and give their Treasurer the limelight, uninterrupted.

But Albo just couldn't help himself.




The mood within the government on the day of yesterday's Budget was considerably brighter than it's been in recent months




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With the 2025 Budget having almost entirely been fed to the media ahead of the lock up, beyond the surprise attached to the minor income tax cuts, money set aside for the campaign is the only piece of intrigue left hidden within the Budget papers.

My tip is more tax cuts to be announced by Labor, in a bid to outflank Dutton.

The more interesting speech to be delivered this sitting week, probably the last time parliament convenes before the election gets called, is what Dutton has left to say in his budget reply on Thursday night.

His office has already indicated that there will be a 'big ticket' item he'll announce, but what do they even mean by that?

It isn't likely to be a call for spending restraint, surely, given that doing so would neatly enhance a scare campaign about 'Dutton led cuts' the government is already working on.

I don't see Dutton as the sort of politician who thinks announcing some sort of summit if he becomes PM is a big deal worth flagging either. However much a bipartisan commitment to tax and deneme bonusu veren siteler federation reform summits after the election is out of the way would be step one on Australia's road to fiscal recovery.

The Coalition has already said that it will pursue a domestic nuclear energy strategy if elected, which is surely big ticket enough.

So what is Dutton planning to surprise us with on Thursday evening?




The simple fact is Peter Dutton has exceeded expectations as Opposition Leader, almost irrespective of how the Coalition performs at the election



Peter Dutton