The Best Way To identify value in your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they supply a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. It means that you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or casino online your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the probability of each outcome isn't due to this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than can be given here where we have been managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a great one to show the best way to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Due to this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. It means that you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or casino online your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the probability of each outcome isn't due to this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than can be given here where we have been managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a great one to show the best way to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Due to this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
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