The Best Way To identify value in your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the most effective Bet trusted online casino soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they give a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any person bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you can find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the prospects of each outcome is not because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we have been coping with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is the best one to show how to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Because of this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any person bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you can find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the prospects of each outcome is not because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we have been coping with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is the best one to show how to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Because of this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
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