Just How To identify value in your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they supply a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear go to these guys be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. This means that you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so might be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the chances of each outcome isn't because of this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we have been addressing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is an excellent one to show the best way to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear go to these guys be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. This means that you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so might be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the chances of each outcome isn't because of this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we have been addressing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is an excellent one to show the best way to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
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