The Best Way To identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and just how they supply a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at trusted online soccer gambling betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you just can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the probability of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we have been working with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a good one to show just how to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Because of this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you just can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the probability of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we have been working with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a good one to show just how to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Because of this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
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