How to identify value in your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they supply a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From simply click the up coming webpage aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there isn't any difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the chances of each outcome isn't due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is the best one to show how exactly to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From simply click the up coming webpage aforementioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there isn't any difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the chances of each outcome isn't due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are managing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is the best one to show how exactly to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
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