How to identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they provide a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory make sure to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly visit this weblink does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could be the most effective value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the prospects of each outcome is not because of this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than may be given here where we are going through bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is the best one to show how to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Due to this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory make sure to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly visit this weblink does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could be the most effective value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the prospects of each outcome is not because of this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than may be given here where we are going through bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is the best one to show how to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Due to this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
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