How Exactly To identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and just how they give a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory make sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that will give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent you could find a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you just can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there is no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare check out this one from dados.teresopolis.rj.gov.br with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the chances of each outcome isn't for this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are going through bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is a great one to show how to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory make sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that will give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent you could find a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you just can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there is no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare check out this one from dados.teresopolis.rj.gov.br with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the chances of each outcome isn't for this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are going through bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is a great one to show how to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
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