How You Can identify value in your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they supply a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that will give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent which you can find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the very best online football gambling value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the probability of each outcome is just not due to this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than can be given here where we are handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is an excellent one to show the way to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Because of this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that will give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent which you can find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the very best online football gambling value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the probability of each outcome is just not due to this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than can be given here where we are handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is an excellent one to show the way to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Because of this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
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