The Best Way To identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the most effective Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they provide a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, quality football which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the probability of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than can be given here where we have been dealing with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a good one to show the way to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. For this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined use of percentages should form a major part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, quality football which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the probability of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than can be given here where we have been dealing with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is rather seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a good one to show the way to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. For this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined use of percentages should form a major part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
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